Jacob Montgomery
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    • From Faces to Politics: Vision-Language Models (Sometimes) Link Visual Demographic Characteristics to Ideological Labels
    • A Dynamic, Ordinal Gaussian Process Item Response Theoretic Model
    • Measuring Google AI Overviews: Activation, Source Quality, Claim Fidelity, and Publisher Impact
    • Nested Incentives to Campaign Online: Institutional, National, Party, and Individual Determinants of Candidate Facebook Use Across Democracies
    • One Language is Enough: Using Transfer Learning to Detect Populist Rhetoric Across 25 Languages Without Translation
    • Polarization but Not Populism Strengthens the Association Between Presidential Election Results and Emotions
    • Populist Rhetoric Engages but Does Not Persuade: Evidence from 90 Countries and Three Experiments
    • Preregistration as Cheap Talk: The Logic and Limits of Self-Enforcing Plans in Scientific Research
    • Short, Precise, and Valid: A Computerized Adaptive Approach to Measuring the Big Five
    • Speaking Their Language?: Multilingualism in Party Communication Across Democracies
    • Structured Flexibility: Gaussian Process Regression as a Complement to Linear Models in Political Science
    • Visual Cues of Gender and Race are Associated with Stereotyping in Vision-Language Models
    • What Drives Perceptions of the Political in Online Advertising?: The Source, Content, and Political Orientation
    • What the Public Wants Regulated: User Preferences on Online Political Advertising in Six Policy Domains
    • Towards a Framework for Creating Trustworthy Measures with Supervised Machine Learning
    • America's Racial Framework of Superiority and Americanness Embedded in Natural Language
    • Idiographic Personality Gaussian Process for Psychological Assessment
    • Large Language Models Portray Socially Subordinate Groups as More Homogeneous, Consistent with a Bias Observed in Humans
    • Partisanship and Older Americans' Engagement with Dubious Political News
    • Ends Against the Middle: Measuring Latent Traits When Opposites Respond the Same Way for Antithetical Reasons
    • Inferring Time-varying Treatment Effects in Panel Data via Multi-Task Gaussian Processes
    • The Effects of Unsubstantiated Claims of Voter Fraud on Confidence in Elections
    • Adaptive Inventories: A Practical Guide for Applied Researchers
    • Closeness and Strategic Participation: Does the Closeness of the U.S. Presidential Election Shape Where College Students Register to Vote?
    • Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections
    • Topics, Concepts, and Measurement: A Crowdsourced Procedure for Validating Topics as Measures
    • Love and Anger in Global Party Politics: Facebook Reactions to Political Party Posts in 79 Democracies
    • Overconfidence in News Judgments is Associated with False News Susceptibility
    • A Digital Media Literacy Intervention Increases Discernment Between Mainstream and False News in the United States and India
    • Bayesian Model Selection, Model Comparison, and Model Averaging
    • Fake news may have limited effects beyond increasing beliefs in false claims
    • GPIRT: A Gaussian Process Model for Item Response Theory
    • So Many Questions, So Little Time: Adaptive Personality Inventories for Survey Research
    • Bayesian Versus Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Treatment Effects in Bivariate Probit Instrumental Variable Models
    • Party Identification in the Age of Obama: Evidence on the Sources of Stability and Systematic Change in Party Identification from a Long-Term Panel Survey
    • How Conditioning on Post-Treatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do About It
    • Revisiting White Backlash: How Race Affects Death Penalty Opinion Today
    • Tree-Based Models for Political Science Data
    • A Pairwise Comparison Framework for Fast, Flexible, and Reliable Human Coding of Political Texts
    • The Effects of Congressional Staff Networks in the U.S. House of Representatives
    • Does Public Financing Affect Judicial Behavior? Evidence from the North Carolina Supreme Court
    • Static Stability and Evolving Constraint: Preference Stability and Ideological Structure in the Mass Public
    • An Informed Forensics Approach to Detecting Vote Irregularities
    • Connecting the Candidates: Consultant Networks and the Diffusion of Campaign Strategy in American Congressional Elections
    • Building and Maintaining R Packages with devtools and roxygen2
    • Calibrating Ensemble Forecasting Models with Sparse Data in the Social Sciences
    • Polarization and Ideology: Partisan Sources of Low Dimensionality in Scaled Roll-Call Analyses
    • Aggregation and Ensembles: Principled Combinations of Data
    • Computerized Adaptive Testing for Public Opinion Surveys
    • Why John Aldrich?
    • Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election
    • Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging
    • Turnout as a Habit
    • Bayesian Model Averaging: Theoretical Developments and Practical Applications
    • Nonresponse Bias on Dimensions of Political Activity Amongst Political Elites
    • Enforcing the Minimum Drinking Age: State, Local, and Agency Characteristics Associated With Compliance Checks and Cops in Shops Programs
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    • validateIt: Crowdsourced Validation of Topic Models
    • bggum: Bayesian Estimation of the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model
    • catSurv: Computerized Adaptive Testing for Survey Research
    • EBMAforecast: Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging Forecasts
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Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election

Jacob M. Montgomery, Florian Hollenbach, Michael D. Ward

PDF DOI
Publication
PS: Political Science and Politics, 45(4), 651-654
Year
2012
publications
AI/Machine Learning Bayesian Statistics Public Opinion/Behavior American Politics
← Why John Aldrich?
Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging →

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