Jacob Montgomery
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    • From Faces to Politics: Vision-Language Models (Sometimes) Link Visual Demographic Characteristics to Ideological Labels
    • A Dynamic, Ordinal Gaussian Process Item Response Theoretic Model
    • Measuring Google AI Overviews: Activation, Source Quality, Claim Fidelity, and Publisher Impact
    • Nested Incentives to Campaign Online: Institutional, National, Party, and Individual Determinants of Candidate Facebook Use Across Democracies
    • One Language is Enough: Using Transfer Learning to Detect Populist Rhetoric Across 25 Languages Without Translation
    • Polarization but Not Populism Strengthens the Association Between Presidential Election Results and Emotions
    • Populist Rhetoric Engages but Does Not Persuade: Evidence from 90 Countries and Three Experiments
    • Preregistration as Cheap Talk: The Logic and Limits of Self-Enforcing Plans in Scientific Research
    • Short, Precise, and Valid: A Computerized Adaptive Approach to Measuring the Big Five
    • Speaking Their Language?: Multilingualism in Party Communication Across Democracies
    • Structured Flexibility: Gaussian Process Regression as a Complement to Linear Models in Political Science
    • Visual Cues of Gender and Race are Associated with Stereotyping in Vision-Language Models
    • What Drives Perceptions of the Political in Online Advertising?: The Source, Content, and Political Orientation
    • What the Public Wants Regulated: User Preferences on Online Political Advertising in Six Policy Domains
    • Towards a Framework for Creating Trustworthy Measures with Supervised Machine Learning
    • America's Racial Framework of Superiority and Americanness Embedded in Natural Language
    • Idiographic Personality Gaussian Process for Psychological Assessment
    • Large Language Models Portray Socially Subordinate Groups as More Homogeneous, Consistent with a Bias Observed in Humans
    • Partisanship and Older Americans' Engagement with Dubious Political News
    • Ends Against the Middle: Measuring Latent Traits When Opposites Respond the Same Way for Antithetical Reasons
    • Inferring Time-varying Treatment Effects in Panel Data via Multi-Task Gaussian Processes
    • The Effects of Unsubstantiated Claims of Voter Fraud on Confidence in Elections
    • Adaptive Inventories: A Practical Guide for Applied Researchers
    • Closeness and Strategic Participation: Does the Closeness of the U.S. Presidential Election Shape Where College Students Register to Vote?
    • Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections
    • Topics, Concepts, and Measurement: A Crowdsourced Procedure for Validating Topics as Measures
    • Love and Anger in Global Party Politics: Facebook Reactions to Political Party Posts in 79 Democracies
    • Overconfidence in News Judgments is Associated with False News Susceptibility
    • A Digital Media Literacy Intervention Increases Discernment Between Mainstream and False News in the United States and India
    • Bayesian Model Selection, Model Comparison, and Model Averaging
    • Fake news may have limited effects beyond increasing beliefs in false claims
    • GPIRT: A Gaussian Process Model for Item Response Theory
    • So Many Questions, So Little Time: Adaptive Personality Inventories for Survey Research
    • Bayesian Versus Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Treatment Effects in Bivariate Probit Instrumental Variable Models
    • Party Identification in the Age of Obama: Evidence on the Sources of Stability and Systematic Change in Party Identification from a Long-Term Panel Survey
    • How Conditioning on Post-Treatment Variables Can Ruin Your Experiment and What to Do About It
    • Revisiting White Backlash: How Race Affects Death Penalty Opinion Today
    • Tree-Based Models for Political Science Data
    • A Pairwise Comparison Framework for Fast, Flexible, and Reliable Human Coding of Political Texts
    • The Effects of Congressional Staff Networks in the U.S. House of Representatives
    • Does Public Financing Affect Judicial Behavior? Evidence from the North Carolina Supreme Court
    • Static Stability and Evolving Constraint: Preference Stability and Ideological Structure in the Mass Public
    • An Informed Forensics Approach to Detecting Vote Irregularities
    • Connecting the Candidates: Consultant Networks and the Diffusion of Campaign Strategy in American Congressional Elections
    • Building and Maintaining R Packages with devtools and roxygen2
    • Calibrating Ensemble Forecasting Models with Sparse Data in the Social Sciences
    • Polarization and Ideology: Partisan Sources of Low Dimensionality in Scaled Roll-Call Analyses
    • Aggregation and Ensembles: Principled Combinations of Data
    • Computerized Adaptive Testing for Public Opinion Surveys
    • Why John Aldrich?
    • Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election
    • Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging
    • Turnout as a Habit
    • Bayesian Model Averaging: Theoretical Developments and Practical Applications
    • Nonresponse Bias on Dimensions of Political Activity Amongst Political Elites
    • Enforcing the Minimum Drinking Age: State, Local, and Agency Characteristics Associated With Compliance Checks and Cops in Shops Programs
  • Software
    • validateIt: Crowdsourced Validation of Topic Models
    • bggum: Bayesian Estimation of the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model
    • catSurv: Computerized Adaptive Testing for Survey Research
    • EBMAforecast: Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging Forecasts
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Bayesian Model Selection, Model Comparison, and Model Averaging

Florian Hollenbach, Jacob M. Montgomery

PDF
Publication
SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations. SAGE
Year
2020
publications
AI/Machine Learning Bayesian Statistics
← A Digital Media Literacy Intervention Increases Discernment Between Mainstream and False News in the United States and India
Fake news may have limited effects beyond increasing beliefs in false claims →

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