PA · 2022
Develops a dynamic Bayesian model for forecasting US Senate elections that integrates polling data, contextual factors, and temporal dynamics. The approach outperforms simpler …
JOP · 2022
Investigates whether the perceived closeness of presidential elections influences where college students choose to register to vote. The study finds evidence of strategic …
PNAS · 2021
Most people think they're pretty good at spotting fake news — but this paper shows that the gap between how good people think they are and how good they actually are is itself a …
JQD · 2021
Analyzes Facebook emoji reactions to political party posts across 79 democracies to study emotional responses to partisan political communication. The study reveals systematic …
JSSM · 2020
Demonstrates how adaptive testing methods can dramatically reduce the number of survey questions needed to measure personality traits without sacrificing measurement accuracy. The …
Misinformation Review · 2020
Challenges the prevailing view that fake news has broad effects on political attitudes and behavior. While exposure to false claims does increase belief in those claims, the study …
PNAS · 2020
Can a short online video actually make people better at telling real news from fake? This paper tests a brief digital media literacy intervention across two very different …
PRQ · 2019
Uses long-term panel data spanning the Obama era to examine the sources of stability and change in party identification. The study finds that while party ID is generally stable, …
PSRM · 2019
Compares Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches to estimating treatment effects in bivariate probit models with instrumental variables. The analysis provides practical guidance …
AJPS · 2018
Political scientists are drowning in data — large surveys, social media, administrative records — but their standard statistical toolkit was built for a simpler world. This paper …